The Dunning–Kruger effect

I really should have gone into cognitive psychology. Sadly 20 years ago I didn't think there'd be much of a future for someone who wanted to put people into mazes like rats. I was a fan of Stanley Milgram's in high school. If only I'd know the Dunning-Kruger effect could have been named after me. However in retrospect that might not be the best idea...

Wikipedia on D-K

NY Times/Errol Morris

This effect explains many former managers and at least two entire organizations that I've worked for.

Why we're doomed as a species, Part 1

Check out these illusions:

Sci Am Illusions

The checker box effect (the first illusion) is very hard to disprove to someone.

Cognitive Biases

Just tracking so I know where this is when I need it:

Cognitive Bias Flash Cards

Those damn kids

Here's a revealing article about motivating Gen Xers (myself included) and Gen Yers:

http://www.entrepreneur.com/humanresources/employeemanagementcolumnistdavidjavitch/article206502.html

I think its telling that there are 3 general things for the Xers, and 9 for the Yers. One theory that would be interesting to follow: The Gen Yers are never going to "be in charge." The Gen Xers, once in power, will stay there longer than their predecessors, and the Gen Yers will simply be skipped.

Go read the article. The summary is "Gen Xers have to understand what choices are possible, Gen Yers are basically children."

And stay off my lawn!

Still Studying...

I'm still studying for the CFA Level 1. I have to say I've a lot of effort into this, and one way or the other I've learned quite a bit. Hopefully I will pass, then of course I get to start studying for the next round, then the next test after that.

At some point by the time I'm ready to retire I'm sure I'll have passed all three levels. Although I suppose this is an Ethics & Standards violation - someone who is still studying should never estimate when they are going to finish.

What I'm reading: "Expert Political Judgement" by Tetlock and "The Predictioneer's Game" by de Mesquita

Again, two books at a time. "The Predictioneer's Game" will end up as the travel book, much more focused on "story telling" than methodology at this point. "EPJ" is a "Fox and Hedgehog" on academic steroids so far.

What I've read: "Black Swan" and "The Future of Everything"

For whatever reason I've developed the habit of reading two books at a time: one at home and one on my way to work. I just finished both "The Black Swan" (in paperback) and "The Future of Everything." Both are about forecasting and why it's so hard. Will put up a summary of both.

I have to say that about half way thru The Black Swan Taleb's arrogant personality does seem to fade into the background, so if you can get there it's worth the effort.

And while "The Future of Everything" is a bit of a tome, the going is very easy and he does draw some good conclusions between weather, finance, and health-related forecasting.